DoD put US$750m behind Serra Verde carbonate inside a US$1.55bn structure. NdPr was unchanged at US$95.09/kg (B* 25 Aug email, 24 Aug session). Supply-policy print, not a China price print.
MP −1.86% on the week (−US$16.2m) and −US$39.1m on Monday. Lynas −1.26% on the week, +A$17.1m on Monday. The split is the session, not the week. HOUSE on LYC is HOLD A$16 (19 Aug). HOUSE on MP is SELL US$35 (19 Aug). MP last 57.42. That SELL is initiation vintage, not a Monday change.
Kill: Lynas FY26, Wed 26 Aug, 11:00 AEST. If LYC holds the print and MP stays offered, treat Serra Verde as MP-specific. If both gap into NVDA that afternoon, Monday was positioning.
US$7.429bn. Top 10 week P&L −US$50.4m at constant 0.715. SPCX −7.68% (−US$89.8m) is the hole. TECK +8.27% (+US$55.2m) and HBM +7.87% (+US$34.3m) paid it back in copper. QQQ −3.23% tracks NDX. G50 +10.89% Monday had no announcement; it is not in this table.
| # | Name | US$m | Week | Week $m |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SPCX | 1,080 | −7.68% | −89.8 |
| 2 | LYC | 1,007 | −1.26% | −12.9 |
| 3 | QQQ | 902 | −3.23% | −30.1 |
| 4 | MP | 853 | −1.86% | −16.2 |
| 5 | TECK | 723 | +8.27% | +55.2 |
| 6 | HBM | 470 | +7.87% | +34.3 |
| 7 | LTR | 453 | +1.92% | +8.6 |
| 8 | ARU | 166 | +2.33% | +3.8 |
| 9 | IVV | 133 | −1.18% | −1.6 |
| 10 | VOO | 133 | −1.19% | −1.6 |
| Mon 24 | No booked event. |
| Tue 25 | RBA minutes. US confidence. Already the print date of this sample. |
| Wed 26 | LYC FY26 11:00 AEST (notice 12 Aug). AU July CPI 11:30 AEST. US PCE and Q2 GDP 08:30 ET. NVDA ~13:20 PT; CRWD after close. |
| Thu 27 | Jackson Hole opens (27–29). EIA gas 10:30 ET (EQT/EXE/AR). KC Fed manufacturing TBC. |
| Fri 28 | Warsh keynote 10:00 ET. 19 days to the 16 Sep FOMC. Canada Q2 GDP. BM1 EGM questions close 17:00 AWST. |
No live PT or rating change this week. Last published (19–20 Aug): SPCX BUY 170 · LYC HOLD A$16 · MP SELL 35 · TECK SELL C$48 · HBM HOLD 23.
NDX/SPX/XJO/USD:AUD week from Yahoo 1d bars (^NDX ^GSPC ^AXJO AUDUSD=X), fetched 25 Aug 14:28 AWST. USD:AUD week is the inverse of Yahoo AUDUSD 0.70852 → 0.71714 (−1.20%). Book USD:AUD is 1.3986 (1/0.715). Do not mix the two levels. Book value and top-10 US$m from holdings.json, Mon 24 close, published Tue 25 11:45am AWST. Serra Verde / NdPr / SpodIX from B* Resources Daily email of 25 Aug. Calendar from Calendar.html compiled 25 Aug. HOUSE from Grok_Initiations tracker 19–20 Aug. Macro overlay file not on disk. Platts lithium table stale 21 Aug; live spod is SpodIX US$2,360 (+US$52) on 24 Aug. SOX and 30Y not sourced.